MAE in choice simulation, Logit or LCA?

Hello,

I have determined the overall MAE of my LCA-4group model. I have used a Count analaysis to get the observed shares and the LCA model with the Randomized First Choice simulator to get the predicted shares. This leads to an overal MAE of -1.15 for the LCA-4group model.

When I do the same for Logit analysis (Count for observed shares and Randomized First Choice simulator for predicted shares), I get a much lower MAE, namely -0.02.

(This might be due to my small sample?)

2 Questions:

1. The logit analysis has 1 attribute less than the LCA, since it is not significant in the logit, however it is sigificant for some segments in the LCA. Can I still compare the MAE of the two models, or do I need to use the Logit model including the insignificant attribute in order to compare the MAE of the two models?

2. In both cases, the MAE of the Logit model is lower than that of the LCA model. Does this mean that I should use the Logit model in the choice simulator? I really want the choice shares per segment, is there a way I can motivate my choice for still using the LCA model?

Thank you in advance!

Floor

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